COVID-19 has affected everything this year—including, and especially, the election. For the Election Day preview episode of the I AM BIO Podcast, BIO’s Dr. Michelle McMurry-Heath spoke with two Washington insiders: Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf, who served as chief of staff to former House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt, and Republican strategist Raissa Downs, who worked at Health and Human Services during the George W. Bush administration.
The takeaway: 2020 is not 2016, Steve and Raissa agreed.
“It’s a very different election,” explained Steve. Joe Biden is more popular now than Hillary Clinton was in 2016, and Trump is the incumbent instead of the challenger.
“I would say in this race, the sign on the wall should be, ‘It’s COVID, stupid,’” he added, referencing the "It's the economy, stupid" James Carville quote from the 1992 election.
Trump has long been seen as being better on the economy—but first things first. “I think public opinion is that Trump may be better on the economy, but we’re not going to get to that better economy unless we deal with the issue,” continued Steve. “And Biden has a huge advantage on dealing with COVID.”
What’s turnout got to do with it? “The enthusiasm among the Trump base has not dissipated, and I think they’re less vocal about it—but I think we will see that show up in person on Election Day,” said Raissa.
“The practical matter is, are there enough people who are part of that enthusiastic Trump base relative to those who are coming to vote for Joe Biden, and frankly, relative to those who have already voted for Joe Biden in early and mail-in balloting?” she continued.
So, who do they think will win the White House? Joe Biden, they agree. (Steve thinks he’ll win by a lot and we’ll know the result on election night; Raissa thinks we’ll know early this week.)
What about the Senate? Steve predicts Democrats will take the Senate, but Raissa thinks Republicans will hold the Senate with a slim margin.
The outlook for the filibuster, what’s at stake for biopharma, and whether COVID will change the electoral map—they discuss it all.
Get the episode at www.bio.org/podcast or wherever you get your podcast fix, including Apple, Google, or Spotify.
More Health Care News:
Reuters: Novavax lays out specific minority targets for U.S. COVID-19 vaccine trial
“The company, which is already testing its vaccine in a Phase III trial in Britain, aims to include at least 15% Black or African Americans, 10% to 20% Latinos, and 1% to 2% Native Americans, the company said at a meeting of advisors to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
Scientific American: Seven ways the election will shape the future of science, health, and the environment
“Climate change, nuclear arms control, the pandemic, and more will be determined by whoever wins the White House and Congress.”
The Washington Post: ‘A whole lot of hurt’: Fauci warns of COVID-19 surge, offers blunt assessment of Trump’s response
“He said the country could surpass 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day and predicted rising deaths in the coming weeks.”
